Terrence Edwards Jr.: Pure Buckets
Terrence Edwards Jr. was the offensive engine for the best Louisville team in years, but will he be able to stick in the NBA?
Louisville Basketball was in a bad place for the past few seasons. Then Pat Kelsey hit the transfer portal. The Cardinals finished runner-up in the ACC and had their best season since Rick Pitino left. Although the NCAA Tournament game vs Creighton left a sour taste in the mouth of players and fans alike, it shouldn’t damper Louisville’s incredible season. The transfer portal class and team star was Terrence Edwards Jr., who came to Louisville after four years at James Madison. In his last season, he led the Dukes to an upset in the first round of March Madness, and he brought that same scoring punch to the Cardinals this year. Let’s examine why he was highly touted in the portal and what he could offer to an NBA team.
Basic Stats (2024-2025): 32.7 MPG, 16.7 PPG, 2.7 APG, 4.1 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 2.1 T/O, 43.7% FG%
Pros:
Gets downhill and scores in the paint extremely well (7 Paint PPG, 94th percentile)
Loves getting to his floater/runner and can finish at a high level (44.7% FG, Rated Very Good on Synergy Sports)
Draws a lot of contact when he gets into the paint resulting in easy points at the line (3.5 Personal Fouls drawn per game, 91st percentile)
When he beats defenders off the dribble he does a good job of putting them in “jail” and making the easy shots
Pressures the glass well on the offensive end (2.0 2nd Chance PPG, 92nd percentile)
Great Catch and Shoot 3 point guy (39%)
Has a nice fluid stroke and a relatively quick and high release that should transition well to the next level
Does well moving off the ball to get these looks by utilizing screens and dribble handoffs
Would like to see him shoot these a little more only shoots 45% of his three pointers off the catch
High usage player who’s comfortable scoring from anywhere (26.6% Usage, 91st percentile)
Can create offense for himself very well off the dribble
Very comfortable shooting stepback and sidestep 3s of the dribble and attempts 6 3-pointers per game
His offensive game should translate well to the NBA level if given the opportunity to be a secondary scorer
Does a great job running in transition (1.7 Fastbreak PPG)
Runs the lanes hard and well even without the ball
Gets rebounds and looks to push the ball up the floor right away
Sometimes takes tougher shots than needed and they don’t always go in (52% FG in transition, Average Rating on Synergy Sports)
Cons:
Takes too many tough shots off the dribble (30% FG off the dribble)
Gets caught holding the ball too long and has to create tough offense
Of all the shots he takes with less than 4 seconds on the clock 50% of them are off the dribble jumpers and he's shooting 22% on then
Turns the ball over a lot by dribbling himself into trouble (2.1 TOs per game, 15th percentile)
Very mediocre passer (1.24 AST/TO ratio, 47th percentile)
When he drives he rarely gets his head up to make the pass unless he’s stopped
Does a great job of passing when he first catches the ball, but once he dribbles he’s likely not passing
Has the ability to make all the passes, just needs to get better at making reads and decisions
His strength and lack of effort holds him back on defense
Extremely lazy getting out to contest shots resulting in tons of open looks for opponents
When stronger opponents drive on him he doesn’t have the strength to keep them out of the paint
Can get caught ball-watching and losing track of his man quite often
Final Take: Edwards is a great offensive player who shouldered the load for a very solid Louisville team. He attacks well downhill and shoots often and consistently. He will need to improve his defense and efficiency to succeed at the next level, but if he is given enough offensive opportunity he could shine. If not, Edwards could fizzle out of the league in no time. It’s all up to how hard he works to become a better defender and more efficient player.
Draft Projection: Late First/Early Second Round
Player Comp: Kelly Oubre Jr./TJ Warren